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Commentary - A Forward View of the US Economy
On April 7, I wrote Risk Analysis Update – A Forward Looking View Of The U.S. Economy, where I listed events to unfold due to the current recession. While I was projecting events to occur well into the 1Q 2009, some of the events have already occurred or are in the process of occurring...
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Headline News, Thursday, May 15, 2008
May 14: Operational Risk - Central Bankers Call for More Action to Reduce Foreign Exchange Settlement Risk
In a report published yesterday the Committee on Payment and Settlement Systems (CPSS), central bankers have highlighted the need for further action to reduce foreign exchange settlement risk.
May 14: Market Risk – Global Commodities Boom, Companies Turn to Top Derivatives Dealers for Help in Hedging
As the prices of energy and other commodities soar to historic highs, companies around the world are making the hedging of their energy commodities exposures a top strategic priority. This development would seem to be a boon for investment banks and other dealers looking to build or expand their franchises in OTC commodity derivatives. A study suggest that although the ongoing commodities boom is creating new opportunities for dealers across the board, the firms benefiting most are the handful of dealers that have historically dominated the market.
May 14: Market Risk – Intraday Liquidity Management, a Tale of Games Banks Play
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York yesterday released Intraday Liquidity Management: A Tale of Games Banks Play—a new forthcoming article in the Bank’s Economic Policy Review series.
May 14: Speech – Yue on Islamic Finance
The following is an address by Eddie Yue, Deputy Chief Executive, Hong Kong Monetary Authority, and Executive Board Chairman, Treasury Markets Association, at the Hong Kong Showcase on Islamic Finance.
May 14: Market Risk - IMF Says Inflation Risks Have Emerged
The prospect for continued relatively strong growth in emerging and developing economies suggests that demand growth for energy and commodities will remain solid, even as global growth is slowing, IMF First Deputy Managing Director John Lipsky said.
May 14: Credit Risk - Bill of Rights Would Cut Credit Availability
The chairman of CompuCredit Corp., the Atlanta-based branded card issuer for consumers with subprime credit scores, says that price controls on credit card products “would cause a large reduction in credit available to a large portion of the American population.”
May 14: Market Risk - UAE Banks to Extend Strong Performance in 2008
Fitch Ratings says in a special report issued yesterday that the positive trend in UAE banks' performances continued in 2007 and is expected to persist in the current year.
May 14: Operational Risk - SEC Action Halts $72 Million International Internet Fraud Scheme
The Securities and Exchange Commission has obtained an emergency court order freezing the assets of the alleged perpetrator of an Internet fraud scheme that reaped approximately $72 million from more than 3,000 investors in all 50 states and at least 30 foreign countries.
May 14: Speech - Cabral Speaks Regarding the Economic Stimulus Package
The following is a speech by Treasurer Anna Escobedo Cabral regarding the current economic stimulus package.
May 14: Speech - McCormick Remarks on Current Global Financial Turmoil
The following is a speech by Treasury Under Secretary for International Affairs David McCormick Remarks on Global Financial Turmoil and its Implications for China.
May 13: Credit Risk – Asian Companies Remain Confident Amid Global Financial Crisis
Asia’s largest companies remain bullish about their prospects for the rest of 2008, despite the lingering crisis in global credit markets and a growing consensus that the United States is on the brink of economic recession. The results of a recent Asian Corporate Finance Research Study reveal several indications that Asian markets have weathered the credit crisis in better condition than markets in North America and Europe, and that companies across Asia are confident in their ability to secure credit and other essential services from their banks.
May 13: Operational Risk - Industry Associations Release Exposure Draft of ''Structured Products, Principles for Managing Distributor-Individual Investor Relationship''
These global Principles reflect collective industry expectations of integrity, professionalism, and ethical conduct in the retail structured products market. The Principles provide common sense guidance on how firms can continue to enhance services targeted toward a growing number of individual investors.
May 13: Energy Risk - Unconventional Gas May Explode
Accessing natural gas supplies are difficult because of environmental laws. And getting to unconventional sources is not any easier. But the difference is that the conventional fields are becoming depleted while output from coal-bed methane and shale are expanding. Today, such fuel sources that can be transformed into natural gas represent a trend in energy production.
May 13: Economic Risk - Globalization is ‘Inevitable, Accelerating and Positive’ Say Leading Business Executives from Around the World
Globalization is viewed by top executives at leading organizations around the world as an inevitable, but positive, business challenge that is here to stay and rapidly growing, according to an in-depth study of business leaders revealed by EquaTerra and World 50. The findings also reveal that politically - led trade protectionism or a major economic downturn are seen by study participants as the only major threats to the continued growth of globalization.
May 13: Credit Risk - Japan's Major General Trading Companies Saw Record Profits In Fiscal 2007
Standard & Poor's Ratings Services yesterday published a Japanese-language report discussing how Japan's six major rated general trading companies (GTCs) continued to post record consolidated earnings in fiscal 2007 (ended March 31, 2008), backed by strong earnings growth in the energy, metals & mineral resources, automobiles, equipment, and chemicals segments.
May 13: Energy Risk - Transforming the Utility Bill
In recent years, the utility sector has done a good job of refocusing on its core utility businesses. As utilities continue to focus on the core utility business, methods to improve customer service are increasingly being devised and implemented. Utilities are attempting new ideas and using technological innovations to ensure that customers are satisfied.
May 12: Market Risk – Hedge Funds Advance +2% in April
Hedge funds lagged the overall markets in April, as is expected given the recent surge in equities. That said, most managers are fearful of a recession, as conversations have changed from whether there will be a recession to how deep and prolonged it will be.
May 12: Industry Risk - Following the Era of Large Buyouts, Private Equity Funds Find New Ways to Compete
Nothing symbolized the most recent private equity boom better than huge buyouts, deals so big that private equity sponsors teamed up to pull off the transactions in so-called consortium -- or "club" -- deals that spurred talk of $100 billion transactions. Now that credit has dried up, the future of large private equity buyouts has become uncertain.
May 12: Market Risk - Chart of the Day
For some perspective on the current state of the stock market, today's chart presents both the long-term and intermediate-term trend of the Russell 2000 (small-cap stocks).
May 12: Energy Risk - The Gift of Solar
Solar energy's presence is now felt. If its influence is to expand, however, researchers must innovate and develop tools to store the power. That's the view from researchers at the Massachusetts's Institute of Technology who have received a substantial grant to make it all happen. Their overall goal is to improve today's mechanics, or to bring in disruptive technologies, that would greatly increase efficiencies and add value.
May 12: Industry Risk - Prime Brokers Will Generate Over US$11 Billion in Revenues from Hedge Funds in 2008
Growing enthusiasm for hedge funds to the tune of $1.8 trillion in the US alone, paired with a profitable fee structure and positive returns, has given the hedge fund industry the capital to extend its influence. As the snowball effect of assets and profits turns into an avalanche, competition for hedge funds’ business continues to grow fiercer.
May 12: Energy Risk - Smart Approach to Smart Metering
Trying to predict the future is tricky. So many decisions are made by so many people—summed together, these decisions collectively determine our future. Planning is just as difficult because we have to weigh many factors and try to pick the ones that will have the largest influence on how our particular industry will unfold.
May 12: Speech – Lowery on Asian Developments
The following is a statement by Assistant Secretary for International Affairs Clay Lowery before the 41st Annual Meeting of the Asian Development Bank.
May 9: Market Risk - Increased Interest in Insurance-Linked Securitization
Fitch Ratings said yesterday that although Insurance Linked Securitisation (ILS) is by no means new, this asset class is receiving increased attention from issuers. Potential insurance issuers and structurers have shown renewed interest in transferring insurance risks to the market.
May 9: Industry Risk - SEC Charges Marvell Technology Group For Stock Option Backdating
The Securities and Exchange Commission yesterday charged a Silicon Valley semiconductor company and its co-founder for reporting false financial information to investors by improperly backdating stock option grants to employees.
May 9: Industry Risk - Agencies Issue Proposed Rules on Risk-Based Pricing Notices
The Federal Reserve Board and the Federal Trade Commission yesterday announced proposed regulations that generally would require a creditor to provide a consumer with a risk-based pricing notice when, based in whole or in part on the consumer's credit report, the creditor offers or provides credit to the consumer on terms less favorable than the terms it offers or provides to other consumers.
May 9: Speech - Paulson Remarks on the Economic Stimulus
The following is a speech by Secretary Henry M. Paulson, Jr., on the current state of the US economy.
May 9: Market Risk - US Mortgage Rates Experience Little Movement
Freddie Mac (NYSE:FRE) yesterday released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) in which the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 6.05 percent with an average 0.3 point for the week ending May 8 down very slightly from last week when it averaged 6.06 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 6.21 percent.
May 8: Industry Risk - Despite the Credit Crunch, Opportunities in Developed Markets Are Waiting
With the collapse of credit markets, firms are increasingly willing to tread into unknown territory to find new opportunities abroad. A PricewaterhouseCoopers report on private equity investment (citing Thomson Financial data) noted that international buyers accounted for 23% of all U.S. mergers and acquisitions in the first 11 months of 2007. These cross-border deals totaled $354 billion, up 73% from the 2006 full-year total.
May 8: Market Risk - Led by Hedge Funds, Alternative Investment Firms Represent 40 Percent of YTD M&A Activity in 2008
Sales of alternative investment firms account for a record 40 percent of deals in the global investment management business thus far in 2008, according to Jefferies Putnam Lovell, a leading adviser on alternative investment transactions and the division of Jefferies Group, Inc. (NYSE: JEF) focused on the asset management and financial technology industries.
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